SDA Pipeline: How Many Dwellings Are Under Construction?

What pipeline data is and why it matters

Pipeline data refers to SDA dwellings that are in some stage of development — under construction, in the planning phase, or awaiting certification — but not yet enrolled with the NDIS. These dwellings do not appear in the official enrolled supply figures published in the NDIS quarterly reports.

This matters because the enrolled supply figure that most investors look at is a lagging indicator. It tells you what has already been built, not what is about to come online. A region that looks undersupplied based on enrolled data may have dozens of dwellings under construction that will fundamentally change the supply-demand balance within a year or two.

Consider a concrete example. An SA3 region shows 40 enrolled SDA places with 38 occupied — a utilisation rate of 95%, which looks like strong undersupply. Based on this data alone, an investor might conclude this is an ideal region for a new build. But if 25 additional dwellings are under construction in that same region, the supply picture is about to change dramatically. Within 18 months, the region could have 65 places competing for roughly the same pool of funded participants.

Without pipeline visibility, the investor would have committed capital based on a snapshot that was already outdated.

How pipeline data complements current supply data

Current supply data and pipeline data answer different questions. Current supply tells you: how many SDA places exist today, and what proportion are occupied? Pipeline data tells you: how many additional places are coming, and when?

Together, these two data points give investors forward-looking visibility that neither provides alone. Here is how they interact:

• High utilisation + low pipeline: Dwellings are full and not much is being built. This is the strongest signal of genuine undersupply. If demand data also shows unmet need in this region and design category, it may represent a real opportunity.
• High utilisation + high pipeline: Dwellings are full today, but significant supply is on the way. The opportunity may still exist, but timing becomes critical. Building now means your dwelling will enter a region that is about to see a supply increase.
• Low utilisation + low pipeline: Dwellings are already sitting empty and not much is being built. The market has recognised the oversupply, but existing vacancy still needs to be absorbed before new supply makes sense.
• Low utilisation + high pipeline: This is the worst-case scenario for a new investor. Existing dwellings are vacant, and more supply is coming. This region should be avoided unless the data shows a very specific unmet need in a design category not represented in the current stock or pipeline.

You can explore current supply and utilisation data across all Australian regions on our SDA data explorer. For details on how utilisation rates vary between regions, see our SDA vacancy rates analysis.

The risk of not considering pipeline data

The SDA market has already seen the consequences of building without pipeline visibility. Several regions across Australia have experienced a familiar pattern: early data shows undersupply, developers move in, multiple projects launch simultaneously, and by the time dwellings are completed 18-24 months later, the region is oversupplied.

This happens because every developer is looking at the same enrolled supply data, which shows the same apparent gap. Without knowing what other developers are building in the same region, each one independently concludes the opportunity exists. The result is a supply glut that can take years to absorb.

The financial impact is severe. SDA construction takes 12-18 months from start to completion. During that period, the investor is carrying construction finance costs with no income. If the dwelling completes into an oversupplied market, the vacancy period extends further — potentially months or even years — compounding the financial strain.

As we discussed in our SDA investment risks guide, the NDIA's pricing model assumes vacancy rates of 7.75-13%, but actual new build vacancy is running at around 25.5%. Pipeline-driven oversupply is a major contributor to this gap. Regions where multiple developers have built simultaneously show vacancy rates well above the national average.

Lenders are increasingly aware of supply concentration risk. Some financiers consider pipeline and supply density as part of their due diligence for SDA project funding, alongside current occupancy and demand metrics.

What pipeline data actually includes

The NDIS quarterly reports include a count of “unfinished” SDA dwellings — those that are in the development or construction process but not yet enrolled. This data is published at the SA4 level (a larger geographic area than the SA3 regions used for enrolled supply and demand data), and is broken down by design category.

It is important to understand what this figure includes and what it does not. The NDIS reports a single aggregate count of unfinished dwellings per SA4 region — it does not break this down into stages such as “under construction” versus “in planning.” The actual development stage of each dwelling is not disclosed. Some may be weeks from enrollment; others may be years away or may never proceed.

Despite these limitations, pipeline data is valuable as a directional indicator. A region with a large number of unfinished dwellings relative to its current supply is likely to see meaningful new stock enter the market in coming quarters. Ignoring this signal can lead to building into an area that is about to shift from undersupplied to balanced or oversupplied.

How SDA Signals incorporates pipeline data

SDA Signals incorporates pipeline indicators alongside enrolled supply data to provide a more complete view of each region's supply trajectory. Rather than presenting only the current snapshot of enrolled dwellings, the platform flags regions where known pipeline activity could materially change the supply-demand balance.

The pipeline data is derived from NDIS quarterly reports, which include indicators of dwellings that are in the process of being enrolled but are not yet counted in the active supply figures. By tracking the movement of dwellings from pipeline to enrolled status over successive quarters, SDA Signals identifies regions where supply growth is accelerating.

This is combined with the other metrics SDA Signals tracks — enrolled supply, participant demand, utilisation rates, and design category breakdowns — to build a layered picture of each region. For a full explanation of how these metrics are calculated and what data sources are used, see our methodology page.

The goal is not to predict exactly how many dwellings will enrol in a region next quarter. It is to ensure investors are not making decisions based solely on a backward-looking supply snapshot when forward-looking data is available.

Using pipeline data in investment decisions

Pipeline data should be integrated into the investment decision process at several stages:

• Region screening: Before shortlisting a region, check pipeline activity alongside current supply and demand. A region with high current demand but massive pipeline should prompt further investigation, not immediate commitment.
• Financial modelling: If pipeline data suggests supply in your target region will increase significantly within 12-18 months, your vacancy assumptions should reflect that. Using the NDIA's standard vacancy assumptions of 7.75-13% in a region with heavy pipeline activity is unrealistic.
• Timing decisions: Pipeline data can inform not just where to build, but when. If a region shows genuine undersupply today but 20 dwellings are under construction, you might wait 12 months and reassess once those dwellings have enrolled and the market has responded.
• Design category selection: Pipeline data broken down by design category can reveal opportunities. A region might have heavy pipeline in High Physical Support apartments but nothing in Improved Liveability — suggesting the latter may be underserved even after pipeline dwellings complete.

The investors who have been caught out in SDA are overwhelmingly those who committed capital based on a single data point — usually current demand — without asking what else was being built in the same region. Pipeline data is the antidote to that mistake.

Frequently asked questions

SDA Signals is a data and research tool. The information on this page does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or professional advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.